The road to the SEC Championship Game is paved with tiebreakers, and for Texas, it's a winding path! With the regular season nearing its climax, the Texas Longhorns, currently at 7-2 overall and 4-1 in the Southeastern Conference, find themselves in a tight race. They're trailing teams like Texas A&M and Alabama, who boast impressive 5-0 conference records. The stakes are high, with a potential first-round bye in the 2025 College Football Playoff up for grabs.
So, how does Texas make it to Atlanta? Let's break it down.
First, let's take a look at the current standings:
| Team | Conf. Record | Overall Record |
|---------------|--------------|----------------|
| Texas A&M | 5-0 | 8-0 |
| Alabama | 5-0 | 7-1 |
| Ole Miss | 5-1 | 8-1 |
| Georgia | 5-1 | 7-1 |
| Texas | 4-1 | 7-2 |
| Oklahoma | 3-2 | 7-2 |
| Vanderbilt | 3-2 | 7-2 |
| Tennessee | 3-3 | 6-3 |
| Missouri | 2-2 | 6-2 |
| LSU | 2-3 | 5-3 |
| Florida | 2-3 | 3-5 |
| Mississippi St| 1-4 | 5-4 |
| Auburn | 1-5 | 4-5 |
| Kentucky | 1-5 | 3-5 |
| South Carolina| 1-6 | 3-6 |
| Arkansas | 0-5 | 2-7 |
Now, here's where things get complicated: the tiebreaker procedures, as outlined by the SEC:
- Head-to-head competition among the tied teams.
- Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams.
- Record against the highest (best) placed common Conference opponent in the Conference standings, and proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams.
- Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams.
- Capped relative total scoring margin versus all Conference opponents among the tied teams.
- Random draw of the tied teams.
If the standings determine a clear Conference champion, the champion will be the home team in the Championship Game. The tiebreakers are then used to determine the opponent.
But here's where it gets controversial... There are scenarios where Texas could win out and still miss the SEC Championship Game. The site bball.notnothing.net shows that the Longhorns could win out but not play in the conference championship game.
Why is Texas behind A&M if the Longhorns beat the Aggies? It's because of how the tiebreakers work when multiple teams are involved.
And this is the part most people miss... The Longhorns have a bye this week, giving them a chance to watch the chaos unfold.
So, can Texas still make it to Atlanta at 6-2? Yes!
Here are the remaining games for the contenders:
- Alabama: LSU, Oklahoma, Eastern Illinois, at Auburn
- Texas A&M: At Missouri, South Carolina, Samford, at Texas
- Ole Miss: The Citadel, Florida, bye, at Mississippi State
- Georgia: At Mississippi State, Texas, Charlotte, vs. Georgia Tech
- Texas: Bye, at Georgia, Arkansas, Texas A&M
- Oklahoma: Bye, at Alabama, Missouri, LSU
- Vanderbilt: Auburn, bye, Kentucky, at Tennessee
- Missouri: Texas A&M, Mississippi State, at Oklahoma, at Arkansas
Remember, non-conference games don't count toward SEC standings, but they certainly affect CFP rankings.
What do you think, Longhorn fans? Do you see a clear path to Atlanta? Share your thoughts in the comments!
